ABSTRACT
New lineages of SARS-CoV-2 are constantly emerging. They contain mutations in the spike glycoprotein that can affect virus infectivity, transmissibility, or sensitivity to vaccine-elicited antibodies. Here we show that the emergence of new spike variants is accurately predicted by patterns of amino acid variability (volatility) in small virus clusters that phylogenetically-precede or chronologically-predate such events. For each spike position, volatility within the virus clusters, volatility at adjacent positions on the three-dimensional structure of the protein, and volatility across the network of co-volatile sites describe its likelihood for mutations. By combining these variables, early-pandemic sequences accurately forecasted mutations in lineages that appeared 6-13 months later. The patterns of mutations in variants Alpha and Delta, as well as the recently-appearing variant Omicron were also predicted remarkably well. Importantly, probabilities assigned to spike positions for within-lineage mutations were lineage-specific, and accurately forecasted the observed changes. Sufficient antecedent warning of the imminent changes in SARS-CoV-2 lineages will allow design of immunogens that address their specific antigenic properties.
ABSTRACT
The spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 is arranged as a trimer on the virus surface, composed of three S1 and three S2 subunits. Infected and vaccinated individuals generate antibodies against spike, which can neutralize the virus. Most antibodies target the receptor-binding domain (RBD) and N-terminal domain (NTD) of S1; however, antibodies against other regions of spike have also been isolated. The variation between infected individuals in domain specificity of the antibodies and in their relative neutralization efficacy is still poorly characterized. To this end, we tested serum and plasma samples from 85 COVID-19 convalescent subjects using 7 immunoassays that employ different domains, subunits and oligomeric forms of spike to capture the antibodies. Samples were also tested for their neutralization of pseudovirus containing SARS-CoV-2 spike and of replication-competent SARS-CoV-2. We observed strong correlations between the levels of NTD- and RBD-specific antibodies, with a fixed ratio of each type to all anti-spike antibodies. The relative potency of the response (defined as the measured neutralization efficacy relative to the total level of spike-targeting antibodies) also exhibited limited variation between subjects, and was not associated with the overall amount of anti-spike antibodies produced. Accordingly, the ability of immunoassays that use RBD, NTD and different forms of S1 or S1/S2 as capture antigens to estimate the neutralizing efficacy of convalescent samples was largely similar. These studies suggest that host-to-host variation in the polyclonal response elicited against SARS-CoV-2 spike is primarily limited to the quantity of antibodies generated rather than their domain specificity or relative neutralization potency. IMPORTANCEInfection by SARS-CoV-2 elicits antibodies against various domains of the spike protein, including the RBD, NTD and S2. Different infected individuals generate vastly different amounts of anti-spike antibodies. By contrast, as we show here, there is a remarkable similarity in the properties of the antibodies produced. Different individuals generate the same proportions of antibodies against each domain of the spike protein. Furthermore, the relationship between the amount of anti-spike antibodies produced and their neutralization efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 is highly conserved. Therefore, the observed variation in the neutralizing activity of the antibody response in COVID-19 convalescent subjects is caused by differences in the amounts of antibodies rather than their recognition properties or relative antiviral activity. These findings suggest that COVID-19 vaccine strategies that focus on enhancing the overall level of the antibodies will likely elicit a more uniformly efficacious protective response.